Brexit: Northern Ireland and Scotland Impacts

Brexit: Consequences.  I was originally going to say “unintended” consequences, but past a primal scream of “You’re Not the Boss of Me!” from England to the EU, I am not sure they intended anything in particular.

But on to the questions at hand. How had Brexit fallen out from what the voters wanted and expected, and what were the effects “no one” thought of, but everyone should have. Today, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Northern Ireland

A quick (and not doubt superficial) review for us Americans. Ireland was a part of / colony of the United Kingdom (which is England, Scotland and Wales) until the 1920s when Irish civil war and rebellions led the UK to call a referendum on Irish Independence. This led to the division of Ireland - the Catholic counties in the south, cleaving off from “Northern Ireland” – the 6 mainly Anglican Protestant (Episcopal in the US) counties in the North.

Cut to the 1970s and 1980s. There was an on-going terrorist movement trying to force the British out of Northern Ireland by some committed Irish Nationalists. The Good Friday Agreement in 1988 helped calm things down, but England’s entrance into the European Union really cemented peace.  The border between Ireland and Northern Ireland essentially disappeared as a barrier. The border was now more like the border between 2 US states than between 2 different countries.

To appease the EU, England agreed leave Northern Ireland in the European Union’s custom system. That is, Northern Ireland still has to follow EU rules for import / export, health / safety and border controls. 

Well, there are a TON of food stuffs, manufacturing and services that no one took into account when putting this agreement into place. A supply chain that might pull parts from various British entities suddenly could not get parts into or out of Northern Ireland. 

It was as if Illinois suddenly had import and export barriers to the rest of the US. The inspections may not be difficult but imagine if every truck passing through Illinois or airfreight through O’Hare had to be stopped, opened and inspected.

Brexit brought to the region higher prices on both sides of the supply chain, limited supplies and longer wait times. It made multiple companies less competitive, a damming hurdle in times of Covid.

For Northern Ireland it also brough a return of violence and anger. Now Northern Ireland is governed by the United Kingdom for government, but has to also follow EU rules on labor, wages, health and safety. Which means, in some ways, the people of Northern Ireland are run by two different governmental agencies, neither of which they have a voice in. 

Result, violence in Northern Ireland that officials seem to hope will “go away”. From outside the UK, if seems obvious that Northern Ireland will ultimate join Ireland either as part of that country or as an Independent State-lette hewing more closely to EU rules and growing further and further away from the current system of UK integration.

Scotland

Scotland has been drifting a bit away from England’s orbit for a while, but Brexit done screwed the pooch (as they say).

Technically Scotland “joined” England when King James VI and I, son of Scottish Queen Mary and great grand nephew of England’s Queen Elizabeth 1, took both thrones. Since Queen Elizabeth 1 had no children, James had a lineage right to the crown. Scotland and England have moved ever closer ever since. (Let’s leave off the whole wars, revolution and stuff, since Americans can’t understand conflicts older than 150 years.)

Then, in the 1970s oil was found in British waters off Scotland – the North Sea find. Scotland started growing economically and culturally with new wealth and confidence. Then the calls for Scottish Independence grew.

Between the late 1970s and late 1990s, Scottish self-government grew as the UK created a Scottish parliament and - reluctantly - granted them more and more powers. In 2014 a vote was held if Scotland should leave the United Kingdom. They ended up voting to stay by 55 – 45%. It was larger vote to stay than anticipated. Note: it helped the NO vote side that the European Union said, at the time, that Scotland would not automatically be let into the EU as an independent country (because of Spain, but that’s another story).

Then, Brexit. While most of the UK voted to leave, the majority of Scotland voted to stay in the European Union. So Scotland is a bit resentful of being pulled out of a Union they were in, by a different “state” – in this case England and Wales.

And the Head of the Scottish National Party, Nicola Sturgeon, asked for a new vote on Independence. The UK said no new referendum because the Scottish vote was promised to be a “once in a generation vote”. To which the Scottish National Party said, effectively, you changed the rules by leaving the EU. 

Now Ms. Sturgeon has become ever more popular because her covid response was seen as better, at least in the beginning. She promised that if the Scottish national party won the elections held last week, they would have a new vote for nationhood, this time that the EU is much more positive about. What happened in the vote.

The Scottish National Party alone won 1 less than a majority. But if you include the Scottish Greens, that also support statehood, the pro-Independence parties won a majority. So will there be another vote. All signs point to -> fucking chaos.

Current Status

No one knows. Northern Irish violence is down the last 2 weeks, but it is unknown if that is a temporary, or if the early violence was temporary.

 As for Scotland, even though the Scottish National Party didn’t win an outright majority, yesterday it was announced that the pro-Independence allies (SNP + Greens) did win more seats than before and will cement their hold on Scottish Parliament.  The public, in a narrow margin, prefers Independence now, but the depth of that support doesn't look deep or committed.

It looks like a vote that is unsanctioned might go forward. 

From this side of the pond, it bears a striking resemblance to Quebec’s drive for Independence from Canada. Where they Quebecois voted to stay in Canada but elected pro-Independence parties to rule the province. Like Quebec, Scotland’s government may bend to the reality that the get more power and money from the UK now than they would from the EU without England.