Friday, June 9, 2023

Trump's Indictment, what does it mean for his election changes?

One might wonder what Trump's Indictment means for his chances in 2024. They are in the toilet, right? 

Probably not.

Why not?

Well, populist leaders are rarely hurt by corruption charges or even convictions. Those in the Trump camp and many others in the Republican camp but on the fence about voting for him will be furious he was indicted. In fact, they will claim Trump has been unfairly treated by a "Deep State" system or "Joe Biden and the Democrats". 

I don't believe either of these things. I believe it is critically important to prosecute him to prove no one is above the law. Which is not true, but at least gives the appearance of truth to the quote - and that is important to the next generation.

But it is important to remember these other indicted populist leaders that won elections.

Israel - Indicted for Bribery and Corruption in 2019. Case on-going. Elected Prime Minister multiple times since.

Italy - 2005 indicted for tax fraud. Elected after that as PM of Italy. He was convicted of buying sex from an underage prostitute in 2013, convicted and banned from politics afterwards.

Argentina - current vice president and former president, was convicted of fraud but remains in office and out of prison because her position carries immunity and because she's launched what's expected to be a lengthy appeal.

This is why I don't think Trump will suffer for this indictment. If he can push the trail back until after the first few primaries, he will not be prosecuted until after the election and could pardon himself.


  1. You might be right but if he's indicted for obstruction of the transfer of power and conspiracy to incite the insurrection, it will probably be tried (quickly) in D.C. with a more favorable judge and jury. Fingers crossed.

    1. I hope your are right. But his lawyers seem good at one thing, and that is delay


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