Monday, October 24, 2022

Are these midterms indicative of American's "temprature"

 There is a lot of Sturm und Drang this year, and much of it by me, around the midterms. And I would like to preemptively try to gain a little perspective.


Despite the outrage and anger on both sides: their side stupid lies about the last election - and the right side of the argument about the death of voting rights, Roe v Wade and gay rights. (See what I did there?)

In any case a lot of weight is ladled on here on these elections. But here is the thing, midterm elections are not usually indicative of anything except "putting it to the man". In lay terms, this usually means expressing how disappointed voters are and checking the results by the levels of voting against the current administration.

Often midterms will change the political power of the House or Senate. This year, it will probably be confined to the House. If the Senate flips slightly, it may indicate nothing. It if flips by a large amount, it means people are really really pissed.

But midterms are also normally driven by extremely motivated voters in a way the general elections are not. Because voting for President in the general, usually drives more voters to the polls. So the midterms are driven by the more politically involved voters who are usually more motivated. 

Summery, the midterms are dreadfully important but not the harbinger of the future we think it is.

Usually.

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