Thursday, March 14, 2019

Perhaps You're Confused by Brexit....

You would not be the first, second or last to be confused.  Simple answers here

What is Brexit?
The people of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland voted narrowly to leave the European Union. Of the four areas, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay, but that isn't how it works. The vote was muddied by lies, disinformation and foreign corruption (a bit like our 2016 election). However the Parliament (their Congress) has agreed to move forward on leaving.

When?
My 60th Birthday (March 29th). However, the date might move.

How are the preparations going?
Poorly. There was a proposed treaty on how to exit and keep some of the basic business arrangements in place. But the people that want to leave said it gave too much away to the EU, and the people that wanted to stay said it didn't keep enough ties to the EU. It was voted down spectacularly last month and slightly less spectacularly two days ago.

So they are leaving without a treaty?
No. Although they voted that the treaty was not acceptable, they also voted that leaving without a treaty was not acceptable. AND, they voted they CANNOT leave without some treaty.

Wait, Don't those cancel each other out?
Welcome to Brexit.

Next Steps?
Who the fuck knows. They are going to vote on the same treaty a third time next week again (PS - at the present rate they are picking up votes, it might pass in 8 years).
Parliament is also going to vote on asking for more time to leave.

So take more time?
Well... now that is a conundrum. All other members of the EU have to agree to give them more time. AND the "more time" has to be before May (2 months away) because of a pan-European election that they don't want Britain to participate in since they are leaving. So the other might not agree.

If they can't leave and can't extend and can't stay, then WTF?
Turns out they can stay actually. Now this would overturn the "vote of the people", but the European Courts have ruled that although they can't extend without agreements, they can stay without any other country in the EU being able to stop them.

Can they vote again?
Maybe. But when? If they are going to have another referendum, two problems exist.
1) When? Pulling a national election together will take at least 8 weeks (per their estimation) and they don't have that much time.
2) What would the new referendum say? [Stay] or [Go with not treaty] or [Go with current treaty]. That might mean that Stay (or 1 of the others) might win with less than 50% of the vote. And that is a huge decision to to without a majority.

So.... stay tuned.  Or don't, que sera sera.

2 comments:

  1. Yay, you're back! Thanks for the Brexit summary. I was one of the cornfused.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If it helps, so are all the Brits. Confused and over it!

      Delete

What is too much Taylor Swift

 This much ... when the singer is used to send a message about POSSIBLE future problems?