For the first time ever, a Presidential debate between the Republican and Democratic candidates will be held in June. This is unique in that the candidates will not be "official" in June—Trump in July, Biden in August. So, several unique outcomes are now possible from this exercise.
- Trump wins the debate.
- Trump wins the debate, and Biden looks so bad that the Democrats must find a new candidate. (They would explain this by saying he changed his mind or a "new" medical issue was found, and he must back out.)
- Binden wins the debate.
- Biden wins the debate, but Trump (and Fox) say that Trump won.
- Biden wins the debate, and Trump looks so bad that the Republicans must find a new candidate. (They would explain this by saying he changed his mind or a "new" medical issue was found, and he must back out. But this possibility is extremely improbable given Trump's hold on MAGA.)
- They look so old and senile that both parties nominate new candidates in their conventions.
- It's a basic tie, and we all move on.
All this is possible because they are debating before being officially nominated. I don't think either 2, 5, or 6 is likely. But we live to dream.
I personally think #4 is the most probable outcome.
If there's no audience and his mic can be cut off I expect Trump will withdraw or won't show.
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