Sundays

Sundays are just for me... and blowing off steam

Sunday, February 13, 2022

Warning Flags for the economy for Scott

 There are two warning flags for me that the economy is very hot and headed for a correction. Now I could easily be wrong, but these are the two things I aee about 1 year  to 1 month before some type of crash, particularly in house prices.

Again, I could be wrong, given that my knowledge is built on a base of knowledge from LA, but it seems more and more of a national indicator.


1: House flipping is a popular topic with the idea "anyone can do this and make tons of money". The worst of this idea is that it works well, for a while. This used to be a very Californian thing. Because the California market used to be one of the only places where "flipping" often worked because of a very volatile market.

When this starts spreading around the country, like 2008, that is bad.

2: Auctions (and now NFTs) rise in price and frequency. This is new for me since the internet age. Now I find that as the frequency of auctions goes up, and the prices for middling artwork and antiques rise too high, it seems like a correction is coming.

People flock to auctions and now NFTS (okay, I really don't understand the value of these) because they feel rich, either house rich or stock rich.


In both cases, pride cometh before the fall.


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Interesting Visual Graphic

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