Sunday, February 13, 2022

Warning Flags for the economy for Scott

 There are two warning flags for me that the economy is very hot and headed for a correction. Now I could easily be wrong, but these are the two things I aee about 1 year  to 1 month before some type of crash, particularly in house prices.

Again, I could be wrong, given that my knowledge is built on a base of knowledge from LA, but it seems more and more of a national indicator.

1: House flipping is a popular topic with the idea "anyone can do this and make tons of money". The worst of this idea is that it works well, for a while. This used to be a very Californian thing. Because the California market used to be one of the only places where "flipping" often worked because of a very volatile market.

When this starts spreading around the country, like 2008, that is bad.

2: Auctions (and now NFTs) rise in price and frequency. This is new for me since the internet age. Now I find that as the frequency of auctions goes up, and the prices for middling artwork and antiques rise too high, it seems like a correction is coming.

People flock to auctions and now NFTS (okay, I really don't understand the value of these) because they feel rich, either house rich or stock rich.

In both cases, pride cometh before the fall.

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