This is Bad News for Bosnia

Bad News - Bosnia edition.

Bosnia looks more and more like it will either break apart or be driven bak to war again. This time (same as last time) it is the Serbian population that is war-crazy. And, if the Serbian section tries to break apart, war will happen again.

Serbian Paramilitary Police march in Bosnia's Banja Luka

After the horrible and unnecessary Bosnian War that killed or forced the migration of 1/3 of the population, the war mongering is starting again.

The Dayton Accords ended the War by "temporarily" making two administrative districts in Bosnia Herzegovina. One, a Serbian section, which has since turned into a ministate. The other a Bosnian / Croat (Croatian) administrative district that tries to function as part of the Bosnian Federal Nation, increasingly difficult to do. 

Neither section is suppose to change the borders independently and their are guarantees from the European Union to prevent it. We saw how useful those guarantees weer with regard to Ukraine's sovereignty. That was sarcasm, the US and Europe stood by as Russia annexed vast swathes previously. Those guarantees, by the way, is what motivated Ukraine to give up the three largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. A lesson Iran and North Korea have taken as, don't give up those weapons!

Neither sub-group in Bosnia is supposed to have a separate military, given the genocide that the Serbians effected in the war. And, up until the last 5 years or so, the European Union has tried to keep the Serbian Section (Republika Sprksa) less militant. But a new leader has emerged and runs Sprkska, Milorad Dodik. He has been sanctioned by the US for trying to overturn the Bosnian State. He has pulled participation for the Bosnian Army, and started his own paramilitary police / army.

Previously unsupported, Dodik is now getting backing from Hungary, Serbia and Russia - and Europe's attention is elsewhere (Ukraine). Dodvik has raised an army, called a Serbian Paramilitary Police. it doesn't look good for peace.

And if Sprksa tries to unify with Serbia proper, then the Croats in Bosnia will try to merge with Croatia. This leaves Bosniaks, the predominant minority before the genocide of 2 Million Bosniaks, without a country and unmasks Europe, once again, as a toothless tiger.