Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Interesting Article in the NY Times About Possible Uncounted Covid19 Deaths

There is an interesting article in the New York Times today about counting deaths from Coronavirus. Here is the link.

What they have tried to do is take out those deaths that are attributed to Covid19 and then look at the remaining deaths. Are the number of remaining deaths much higher or lower than are normal for this time (they used a thresehold of 10%)? They looked at all weeks since January, but most of the changes show up in the last 4 weeks.

Once you take out the Covid 19 deaths, the theory goes, is that any significant number OVER the average of deaths in that state per year is probably due to Covid19 in a way. Either exacerbating a chronic condition, or DOA for the ambulance and no autopsy or no room at the ICU.  

Interestingly, some states have lower than normal totals. Most likely due to less driving and shelter in place orders. But it is important to understand as we open up.  I included some graphs here, more are on the site. (Note: Again I must say the NY Times does amazing graphics). This does NOT include the very worst areas. New York City has an additional 23,000 deaths more than normal, New Jersey - 5,300, Illinois - 1,400, Massachusetts - 1,300 or Maryland - 500.

But here are some stats for other states. Ones with significantly more deaths than normal (again - these data sets hasvealready removed those deaths attributed to Covid19).

And many states have NOT seen much of a change - after the Covid19 deaths are removed. I did not include all, but I did include those states where people I love live.

Only missing data set is Wisconsin here, which is on the bad side with 200 excess deaths over these past 4 weeks.


  1. Very interesting post ! Amazing what I can find out when I get internet after 3days. Thanks for the info !!

  2. It looks like some states, e.g. Kentucky and Nebraska, that didn't have excess deaths during that period are now getting hit hard by the virus. Guess it took a couple weeks for the virus to move from the coasts to the heartland.