Why no one knows what will happen in Presidential Race

 It is a tough time for pollsters right now. They know the problems, and we know the issues. So why aren't polls better?

Let's look at the reasons:

1. Trump performs better than polls indicate. This has been true in the past and may be true now. Lots of people don't admit they vote for Trump, but in the privacy of the voting booth - they pull the Trump lever.

2. There may still be a "Tom Bradley" effect. Some people say they will vote for a minority but then do not. This was documented first in the run for California Governor when Tom Bradley, mayor of Los Angeles, looked poised to win, per the polls, but lost.  So Kamala may underperform if people hesitate to vote for a minority or a woman.

3. Abortion performs better in actual votes. Reproductive rights have consistently outperformed expectations. Even in very Republican states, every time reproductive rights or overturning too strict abortion bans is on the ballot, it wins. This is why some critical states have worked very very hard to disqualify initiatives. States that seem to cheat included Arkansas and Missouri, where state officials told supporters EXACTLY what they had to do. When the supporters followed every rule, the state still overruled the initiatives on narrow legal grounds, lying to initiative gathers to ensure abortion access would not be on the ballot.

4. Who answers landlines or cell phone numbers from unknown callers? No one. Many people, particularly younger people, do not answer cold calls, which polling depends on. This is similar to polls showing FDR would lose his 2nd election. Calls only went to households with phones, which only the richest had.

The moral of this tale. No one knows what the outcome will be.